Saturday, March 12, 2016

#1.5 Analysis/Thoughts on the groups of CS:GO's First $1 million dollars major tournament.

12/3/2016, 1:04 am : Analysis/Thoughts on the groups of CS:GO's First $1 million dollars major tournament.

As the title indicates, this will be my personal thoughts on the groupings of MLG Colombus.
I have listed the groups in order of which interests me the most and is notable to keep an eye on.

Group D:

Natus Vincere (Na Vi)
Virtus Pro (VP)
Gamers2 (G2)
Cloud 9 (C9)

Boy oh boy, this will be a group I am very keen to see the results for.

Gamers2:                                                                                                                            Firstly, I would like to talk about G2, as G2 is a very interesting team, as they have been well known for not being able to make it past the group stages of any major since EMS One Katowice 2014, despite having a solid in game leader in Ex6tenz, decent fraggers like shox, Scream, and players who seem to fit the team's roles nicely on paper. 

Recently, Rpk, who is considered somewhat a "new" addition to them after his two year hiatus from the beginning of CSGO, has also shown improvement in his fragging.
For their final player, Smithz, I tend to see him as one of the weak links in this team, but I will say that he is also a capable player in the sense that he can be one of the team's AWPers, and he has shown rather good performances before, such as top fragging when he was in EnvyUs with shox (link to be added in the future)

TLDR:

Thus, this group is a very interesting one for G2 as I see a great potential for them to finally make it out of groups as the second seed if Virtus Throw () , instead of Virtus Pro/Plow appears at the major, given their recent slump as of late, but I think the Poles would still give them a good challenge if they somehow woke up from their slump within these weeks.                                                           Cloud9 is Cloud9,Clown9, Choke9, whatever you like to call it (), but I think that they are the weakest team here, since their lineup is based mostly on skill, with little emphasis on tactics.

Na Vi:

Na Vi will most likely make it out of the groups as they are the strongest team in this group without a doubt, given VP's slump as of in the recent period leading up to this major.

Virtus Pro:
Things really look bad for VP fans, given the recent slump they are in, and for them to make playoffs, you need people like Snax and Neo going off, but I wouldn't count them out, considering that they are a team that has the longest standing roster out of all the major teams here.
For G2 and VP, I would say that it might be a 45-55 in favour of VP, but if shox and scream show up, along with RPK and Ex6tenz doing the calling, it might be a 55-45 in favour of G2.

C9:
I have an extreme bias against NA teams, because they haven't really proven anything to me except that excellent run the previous c9 roster had in 2015, however when they were col, they lost me a freaking key, even though it was my mistake back then to bet on NA teams.
Okay , for serious, I think C9 will be exiting the groups, they don't have solid tactics, they have poor teamplay, and they are only mostly based on skill.
Players to watch out for: Skadoodle, Shroud.
Chances they will make out of groups: roughly 25% at most.

Group C:

EnvyUs (nV)
Astralis (ex-TSM (EU) /QuestionMark)
Gambit
CLG

nV:
nV have undergone a roster change, removing kioshima for this Tier 2-3 French player called Devil, so I'm not so confident since they just underwent a roster change, but against CLG in a Best of 1? I think CLG has AT MOST only 35%, provided JDM, tarik and cutler show up, despite having fugly as an additional firepower to the team.

Gambit:
players to look out for: waylander,mou,Dosia
Gambit is a CIS superteam on paper, as each player fits the team's roles nicely, again emphasis is on paper, with an IGL in hooch, fraggers in mou,waylander, and Dosia, and even Adren (CIS) who can be a fragger.
waylander turned a lot of heads at the previous major qualifier (not the MLG qualifier), and I believe he needs to carry his own weight because Dosia, before he retired from HellRaisers, was not in a very good form.
In this case, we can say that waylander and mou, the youngsters on the team have a lot of weight on them to some extent.
hooch I heard was one of the best Russian in game leaders, so I hope I get to see some interesting and maybe solid tactics from Gambit.

General thoughts: (because I want to go to sleep)
Although HLTV has claimed that the "group of death" is the aforementioned Group D , I actually think Group C could also be a group of death to some extent.
If you think about it:
nV just had a roster change which saw kioshima go out, and DEVIL (from a >top3 French team come in)
Astralis only fails to perform up to standards (choke) at Semis.
CLG has been improving, based on what I heard, but I think they might be the weakest team in this group, along with Gambit.

TLDR:
Top Dogs are nV and Astralis to make it out of groups
I personally think Gambit has the most upset potential, followed by CLG, I wouldn't be surprised if one TopDog couldn't make it , but this outcome is unlikely (its like a roughly, 10-30% chance of this happening)

Group B:

Faze (ex G2/ex Kinguin)
Liquid (within Top 5 NA team)
fnatic (within Top 5 World)
Splyce (TIER 2 TO THREE NA TEAM>SHOULD NOT DESERVE TO BE HERE, WHY YOU DENY MONGOLZ ENTRY! BibleThump)

Faze:
AIM RELIANT LINEUP, MEME TEAM BECAUSE MLG COLOMBUS ALSO.
PLAYERS TO LOOK OUT FOR: rain, aizy, jkaem
They did get a coach to be their In Game Leader though so ye.

Liquid:
Players to look out for: s1mple, nitr0 and Hiko.
s1mple needs to go into carry mode just like how he was in HellRaisers back then, for Liquid to make the playoffs.
nitr0 I heard is one of the best NA players, and Hiko, how could anyone forget his INHUMAN REACTIONS performance at ESL One Cologne 2014?
Liquid vs Faze: I think it would be a 50-50 :s

Fnatic:
We no need to talk about Fnatic, because we got players like olofm,krimz and almost the entire team is skill reliant, sure can get out of groups one.

Spycle:
I am very very very extremely sad that Mongolz could not play in the qualifier, and Spycle replaced them. I don't see Spylce getting out of groups, if they win the major tournament I will open 20 cases and say OP Delivered on reddit, linking this blog post.

Group A:


Ninjas in Pyjamas (NiP) The original number one team in CSGO with an 87-0 LAN record.
Luminousity (LG) The upcoming and currently as of writing, Top 4 team on HLTV's rankings, I'm glad that they made it so far though, because I was cheering for them when they were ex-Keyd Stars back then.
mousesports (mouz) Right now currently know as the nikosports show KappaWealth , this is another interesting team to see if they can upset and make it into playoffs.
Flipsid3 Tactics (F3) The worst team in this group, only good at qualifying for CSGO majors.






To be continued?

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